Where are we headed?

There is an unease creeping in on us these days. Lots of activity is reported - but none of the good kind:

The talibs seem to be encroaching in on the capital. There have been more and more attacks on trucks between Kabul and Torkham, Wardak and Logar. Three aid workers have been murdered yesterday in Loghar There have been many rape cases - even of young children - and many kidnapped businessmen, among them one of my Afghan colleagues, snatched under still mysterious circumstances.

Things look menacing these days and have eventually moved into my own backyard. But worst of all no one seems capable of doing anything about it. Yet one doesn't seem to realise it because still things are peaceful, the Fridays are green and blue, spent under the trees of my garden. Biking is still on our mind and we'll go again as soon as it turns cooler.

But when will this bubble burst? Or will someone get their act together shortly before there is open war over the capital?

The problem is two-fold:

The first issue is Pakistan. If Pakistan is not brought in line and their radical elements which feed the Afghan insurgency are eradicated (which means beyond considerations of human rights and other liberties) than this cancer will grow until Afghanistan is again on its knees.

While here and there we hear voices - especially from US military side - which put full blame on Pakistan for supporting the Afghan insurgency - there is no concrete and uncompromising action taken by Western governments towards the Pak government. The longer we wait the more difficult this will become as more and more Pakistani institutions will get undermined and entangled with radical forces such as the Talibs. This has already happened with part of the army and with - according to expert observers - with at least 50% of the ISI. How, may I ask, will it be possible for the Pakistani government to take the required stringent action against the frontier areas if large portions of those institutions which ought to be tasked with such a clean up are already subverted?

So it is this smokescreen the US does not penetrate and which lets them subsequently support the Pakistani government believing their tales of upset about the ever growing radical wave. In a misguided assumption of effective counter action they pump in more and more funds to support this subverted government which does not improve the security situation yet still takes in one million after the other in aid-funds. And let's face it: this newly elected government of squabbling "democrats" will be even more powerless in the face of increased extremists' activities than the military one of Pervez Musharaf. While Pakistan is another country which should never be governed by a parliamentary democracy Afghans have to wish now for Pakistan to descend into self-created democratic chaos so that the Pakistani insurgency draws more fighters out of Afghanistan to support their opportunities across the border.

Such are the perversions created by incapable governments supported by the West simply because of their superficial democratic credentials!

The second issues is that there is a weak Afghan government in place which proofs day by day incapable of extending its influence and power into the provinces, it fails to protect the people against talib influence, it fails to establish a rule of law and it fails to punish the criminals under which ever banner they operate.

The true reason is that this political system is ill-designed to produce a capable government and executive powers out of an incapable people. We should all remember that democracy "ensures that the people are not governed better than they deserve it". Parliamentary democracy is not for an LDC emerging from thirty years of conflict and mistrust in authority!!

This country - and yes, shoot me for it - needs an authoritarian rule for quite some time - a rule which deals with threats from outside the system with measures from outside the system. A rule which brings people in line, which implements the rule and the appreciation of law, accompanied by effective sanctions. After thirty years of impunity and anarchy we have to accept that a stronger hand then elsewhere is required and also that there will be casualties - and if we don't accept this, this country will never recover. "If you play with fire, you'll get burned". And feeling the burn they must - all the enemies of this country, foreign and domestic. Because if they don't they will use their freedoms this system grants them not in support of it but against it. And a human rights-led judicial system can only punish after the criminal is proven guilty - no preventive actions are allowed. But it is exactly the latter which we lack dearly but which might not always respect the "human rights" of those who deny the same to others. Such measure are the order of the day because the forces "outside the system" are threatening to take over - they are not a minority which can be dealt with by means of civil rights leniency - they want another system, another society. And that is why they must be dealt with in an extraordinary fashion.

Exceptional situations call for exceptional measures - and human rights and democracy can't provide those in a country like Afghanistan where the basics for such a system are not laid yet. Democracy is underpinned by education and civil awareness, while voting for illiterate people does not mean anything. What means something to them and the security of the region and ultimately the world is employment, daily security and food on their table. The form of government should be chosen with this outcome in mind, not concerned alone with the process of establishing a government and not assume in a naïve manner that a democratic process also leads to good governemance.

Far from achieving acceptable results, this Afghan parliamentary democracy has put criminals into power who only work for their own pockets. Incapable and corrupt they suck out of their positions whatever they can. And lacking a working judicial system they get away with impunity. This is what "democracy" means in Afghanistan. Everyone has a vote, yes - and then? What do people do with it, if this vote is not turned into good governance and measures which improve their lives? This is what countries like China, Singapore, Malaysia and others recognised: freedom is not only a right but also an obligation. And if a people is not capable of handling this obligation yet, there needs to be a transition period where the people are guided in what is best for them, rather than letting them make their own decisions or rather letting them attempt to do so - them, the majority of whom are illiterate, otherwise uneducated and inexperienced and damaged by over twenty years of anarchy.

I do realise that this is a narrow path to tread and that the Lee Kuan Yews, Mahatirs, Amanullahs and Deng Xiao Pengs are in short supply in the world. But there is an urgent need to try - Afghanistan's political system needs to be changed - not reformed - changed.

So, where ARE we headed? Right now it seems as if we are headed towards another conflict in this war-battered country as neither one of the above raised points are anywhere close to being resolved

It is not too late yet - still measures can be taken to beat back and eradicated the talibs and set right the political back drop which nurtures them both in Afghanistan and Pakistan. But such have to role in fast and furious - otherwise it is too late yet again.